The Islamic takeover of a country or a region of the country is dependant on the relative proportion of Muslims compared with non-Muslims, and/or the influence of militant Muslims among the Muslim population. A higher proportion of Muslims among the population or the growth of the number of Islamic militants among Muslims (even though Muslims constitute a smaller part of the population) drive the political development along a certain path. A successful assimilation process may change that path but there seems to be no definite examples yet of such a process.
We need theories that describe (later also explain) the political development in a country with a growing Muslim minority (or a growing militancy among the Muslim population) and which country doesn't carry out a strategy to oppose Islamization. A preliminary version of a theory (concentrating on parts of the conflict between political (traditional) Islam and domestic non-Muslim forces) is presented below. On the basis of that description of the political process, we then formulate (sect. 2) the structure of a prescriptive theory (a policy model) that can cause this process to be stopped and therefore avoided. In sect. 4.1-12, this model is then filled with contents, and an integrated policy helping to preserve the traditional rights in a European country is described in all its parts and details.
It is our hope that those detailed policy proposals regarding different areas of life in the society will be thoroughly discussed by all interested bloggers at this forum. Perhaps a majority view may form about the specific contents of the various individual policies (each regarding a different area). The results will later serve as parts of a comprehensive policy that can serve as an example for many political parties in Europe which - during the coming decades - will find it necessary to formulate their policies regarding how to preserve a free society.
By showing an extensive and detailed policy proposal, it may be possible to influence the structure of that discussion and set the basic parameters for the debate in hundreds of political parties, or organizations, in Europe.
1.2 The process and its phases
The basic development process seems to follow a pattern where eight phases can be discerned. These phases are described below, but just briefly. Later a more extensive description of them will be given. An underlying assumption is that a growing Muslim minority allows radical Islamists to influence a growing part of the population in the country. The contents of the traditional Islamic doctrine which is recognized by all four schools of Islam to be the valid one (various interpretations differ - of course - between them), seems to support the interpretations of the radical Islamists regarding many matters. That is probably a main reason for the passivity and silence of the so called "moderate" Muslims who don't have a comprehensive theoretical doctrine to lean upon. Another reason may be that many, or most, "moderates" share the same goals as the radical Islamists but just oppose some of their methods. Fear of reprisals can also be a cause of their passivity. The radicals also have strong international support, including the financial support.
On the basis of our empirical knowledge about the political development in Muslim countries, the attitudes regarding many matters of Muslims in Europe and other pieces of information e g their reactions during the first five years of the war on terror, a good prognosis can be made. During the coming decades, numerous examples from Europe will illuminate the different phases and their contents.
a) The starting point is a Western society with a normal development Social peace, satisfactory economic growth, ordinary crime levels, and changes in government depending on democratic elections. The number of Muslims in the population is very low, and their influence on society negligible.
Current examples: Finland, Baltic states.
b) An initial phase when the proportion of Muslims is still fairly small, certain areas of human life of the immigrant population are in practice left alone by the authorities. This allows repression of girls and women in many Muslim families. Open or concealed honor murders which enforce some behavioral rules of the Muslim minority happens now and then. A high birth rate among Muslims and a high level of immigration from Muslim countries is promoted inside the Muslim society.
Infrequent proposals aiming at establishing sharia regarding various matters, acknowledging Muslim holidays a s o are presented. Another characteristic is increasing levels of crime motivated by attitudes often connected to jihad e g an increasing level of rapes of non-Muslim women.
The incidence of rapes carried out by Muslim men in Norway against non-Muslim women is many times higher than rapes by non-Muslim men. The rape frequency in e g Oslo per capita is said to more than five times higher than in New York City. And two thirds of these rapes are committed by immigrants even though they still constitute a rather small part of society. This does not only reflect the dysfunctional relations between sexes in the Muslim part of society but is also a sign of an early “light-version” example of the influence of jihad thinking in the country. Charities, property crimes including credit card crimes are used to collect money for global jihad. Current examples: USA, Sweden, Norway, Denmark.
c) Preparations for jihad: Beginning of geographic no-go areas for the police and public administration officials. Frequent physical attacks and even single infrequent murders of policemen or persons opposing political Islam. Death threats against adversaries are common. An increasing physical destruction of property by groups, influenced by the radical imams and the jihadists.
Besides frequent proposals to introduce sharia laws, we find established "private” sharia courts in certain areas judging matters of special interest to Muslims. Property crimes of various types in order to finance the beginning of a domestic jihad movement. Current examples: France; beginning in England, Holland.
d) Start of jihad: Murders of individual policemen or active anti-Muslims with a certain frequency, which murders carry an evident political message. An organized countrywide Islamist movement appears, and some mosques start to retreat from liberal versions of Islam used as a deception during the initial stages ( 1-3). Establishment of definite no-go areas where militants put taxes on corporations and individuals. Extortion of individuals outside these areas.
Frequent use of unofficial (or now maybe even official) sharia courts as a substitute for ordinary courts, in the “liberated” areas. Militias start to form among non-Muslim groups in society. Nationalistic non-jihad parties grow rapidly in importance in the political life. The emigration of European citizens from the country increases significantly. Current examples: Beginning in France.
e) Development of jihad: Frequent murders of policemen, teachers and well-known individuals opposing political Islam. Physical fights between groups of Islamists and policemen, and even occasional firefights around and outside the borders of the “liberated areas”. Militants start to openly show weapons and declare far-reaching political goals e g taking over a region or the whole country. The liberal western versions of Islam disappear completely at many mosques when it now is of less interest to Islamists to deceive, and radicals put pressure on still moderate mosques.
Militias of non-Muslims groups grow in strength and start to take infrequent part in the fighting. A growing physical separation between different religious groups in the society. The level of emigration starts to become a national problem. Passive governments and passive political parties are replaced by hard-line nationalistic parties. Current example: South of Thailand
f). Jihad: Insurgency Use also of the state's military force against larger groups of Islamists in regular military fights. A national Home Guard is organized to try to prevent private militias to grow and take over the main responsibility of protecting domestic citizens. Campaigns by the Islamic movement to convince media and the population of their right to dominate certain areas of the country proclaimed to be Muslim. Constant murders and kidnappings of opponents and well-known persons.
Coercion of Muslim young men to take part in jihad. Regular taxation of people in the liberated areas and extortion against citizens outside those areas. Few Muslim groups help the government, while some declare neutrality.
Current example: The Philippines
g). Jihad to Civil war. Large-scale military fights when the domestic forces fight the Islamic movement's goal to dominate a geographic region, or the country. Militias and the national Home Guard complement the army. Widespread executions, terror, cruelty, mayhem and widespread destruction reign in urban areas. Definite separation between Muslims and non-Muslims leads to large-scale movements of the population.
Neighboring countries will help the European citizens in the specific country with – as a last resort – armed assistance. Neighbors or NATO are in some cases asked by the government of the country to intervene militarily to help in the fight.
Example: Lebanon during the seventies – end of eighties.
8. Victory for European forces (A), or victory for Islam (B)
(A) A possible end result of a civil war resulting in a victory for the domestic population will be the total banishment of traditional Islam from a specific country. Widespread emigration/deportation and large scale conversion of Muslims in the country.
(B) A victory for Islam will allow all the rules of a victorious Islam to be applied. Traditional Islam will substitute for all liberal western versions of Islam that have grown in the country but still lack any real theoretical basis and a real doctrine.
Massive and nationwide expropriations, slavery of conquered women, continued slaughter of non-Christians and Christians known for opinions opposed to Islam and of moderate Muslims who initially try to protect non-Muslims, murder of minorities e g gays. A Muslim dictatorship without democracy similar to religious dictatorships in the Middle East, is established.
The sharia laws is the basis for a new constitution and the laws of the country. The institution of dhimmitude is introduced and will regulate the life of Christians and Jews. The rest of the population will slowly be eliminated. The GNP declines successively to less than 50 % of its former level, and an insignificant growth happen only during good years.
1.3. A preliminary discussion of a few phases
If the governments of a European country during the coming decades show an unwillingness to protect its European citizens from the inroads of Islamists, this attitude will sooner or later lead to violent conflicts between the traditional or new political anti-jihad forces, and the radical Islamic movement. It seems highly possible that the development phases 2-3 may last a long time in societies with strong democratic traditions, a good educational system and – from the beginning - a fairly homogenous ethnic population. The infiltration and dissemination of political Islam's values among non-Muslims and moderate Muslims will then during a long period be carried out mainly with non-violent means. The methods of this missionary and pre-Revolutionary work during phases 2-4 show a pattern which will be analysed later. That work is often structured according to principles laid down by e g the Moslem Brotherhood for the expansion of political Islam in European countries.
This growth of Islamic influence can be counteracted by certain laws and policies. The acceptance of such laws and rules by the majority will probably in many countries be dependant on how far a country has advanced towards violent conflict between the population groups. Gullible socialists and anti-Western/antimarket parties in a western country may decide not to stop the slide down the slope toward more and more violence. They will prevent employment of the firm methods which can stop the journey towards civil war. But sooner or later - if the traditional parties will not protect the European population against the continuous expansion of radical Islamic demands and actions - the European population will shift their political preferences to nationalistic parties. It is a sign of real weakness if traditional political parties are not able to handle the new danger correctly. If they don't and new political forces get into power, protective measures will be realized in those countries.
The policy measures will eliminate the possibility of an unintegrated Muslim population group to take over and dominate the country politically and religiously.
So it is not so much a question about if the measures in sect 2 and 4 will be adopted. The main question is instead w h e n. Will a lot of civil strife - perhaps even an insurgency - happen before definite measures are taken? Will a lot of valuable time, a large number of lives, and huge amounts of wealth be wasted before today's politicians understand what really is happening, or they are exchanged and correct measures are taken?
The proposed policies will stop the development towards more and more influence for traditional Islam and violence and – in the end – insurgency and perhaps civil war. They will lead to Muslims integrating into the society with values that resist traditional - and therefore political - Islam.
An exceptional case is that the phases 4-5 are more or less bypassed, and Muslims are allowed to grow to become a majority in a country. Feeling its new power, the new government will then soon start to take away the freedoms and human rights of non-Muslims. This breaks the bonds between the citizens of the country, and the original population will defend its ancient values of freedom, and an insurgency and later a civil war will ensue. However, the government will in this case be favorable towards radical Islam, and the army will then be paralyzed. The European officer corps and the non-commissioned officers have not yet been replaced. Non-Muslims will later according to the rules of dhimmitude not be allowed to own weapons, or be part of the armed forces. The fighting will be carried out by militias.
A calm and orderly transformation to dhimmitude for the non-Muslim part of the population combined with widespread emigration of Europeans, is improbable. So even in these circumstances with a Muslim majority, civil war will erupt, and Muslims and non-Muslims in different European countries will intervene and help each other.
You can read Part 2 of this post, Islamization of Europe and the Policies to prevent it, here.